Last Updated on April 27, 2026 by Jaspreet Kaur
Public transportation systems in cities like New York are usually thought to be stable and predictable. Extreme weather can really change how and when people choose to travel. A study in npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport looked at how weather affects subway ridership in the city.
The study looked at data from 10 subway stations from 2023 to 2025. It found out how people respond to rain, cold and other factors. The results show that commuting behavior is more dynamic than it seems. There are patterns when the weather is bad.
New Approach
By looking at each subway station one by one the researchers used a method called vine copula modeling. This method lets them see how ridership at stations changes together when the weather is bad.
This approach gives a realistic view of how the transit system works when there are disruptions. The system responds in a way like it has a shared “signature” during bad weather.
Rain Impact
Heavy rain is one of the disruptive factors especially during the evening rush hour. The study found that ridership goes down a lot during this time with some stations having drops high as 29 percent.
The effect of rain is not the same all day. Morning commutes are pretty stable. Evening travel is more affected. This is because people can change their evening plans. They can leave earlier, wait for the weather to get better or skip trips that’re not necessary.
This leads to drops in ridership during the evening rush hour. Most people still make their trips just at different times.
Cold Effects
Extreme cold is different. Even when it is very cold, morning commute levels do not change much. The study found that ridership drops during snaps are small, usually between 1 and 2.4 percent.
This means that people still travel for things like going to work no matter if the weather is cold. Cold weather does affect travel that is not necessary. Ridership goes down during off-peak hours, when people would normally go out for fun.
Station Differences
One of the interesting findings is that different stations respond differently to the same weather event. Even stations that are close to each other can have different responses.
For example some stations have drops in ridership during heavy rain while others stay pretty stable. This shows that things like station design and surrounding land use play a role in how stations handle bad weather.
Model Insights
The method used in the study lets researchers simulate how the subway system might respond to bad weather. By understanding how stations are connected planners can anticipate disruptions. Prepare better.
The researchers note that there are some limitations. The study only looked at busy stations and bad weather events are not common in the data. So the findings are estimates, not predictions.
So the model gives valuable insights into how the system works under stress. It provides a foundation for research.
Climate Concerns
The results of this study go beyond daily commuting patterns. As climate change makes bad weather more common it is more important to understand how transportation systems respond.
Changes in ridership can also show issues of fairness. Some communities rely more on transit and disruptions can affect them more. Identifying areas can help agencies make targeted plans to keep transit accessible.
Future Planning
Transit agencies can use these insights to make the system more resilient. By knowing when and where ridership is likely to go down they can adjust schedules, use resources better and communicate with passengers during disruptions.
Long-term planning can also benefit from these findings. Investing in infrastructure, station upgrades and climate adaptation strategies can help reduce the impact of weather on public transportation systems.
Conclusion
The study shows that weather plays a role in shaping subway ridership. It affects not how many people travel, but also when they choose to do so. Heavy rain disrupts evening plans while extreme cold has an effect on essential commutes.
As cities face climate challenges understanding these patterns will be crucial, for building resilient and fair transportation systems. By looking at the network rather than individual stations planners can develop smarter strategies to keep cities moving.